ARR will vary depending on baseline rate. All things being equal, the lower the baseline rate, the lower than ARR. The argument in favor of RRR is it will stay (more) consistent regardless of baseline rate. I find this argument a bit specious as the *best* approach is to present both of them. I will expand upon this in the next article.
Re: Omicron. Depends on a few factors, namely how effective the vaccine is in preventing confirmed cases. In other words, is the RRR consistent?
In addition to all of this, there are numerous confounders worth mentioning. Stay tuned.
So....you're telling me that the government lied to me, and the main-stream media, and the scientists, and big-pharma? Huh? They've never done that before, have they?
I will be diving into this over a series of upcoming posts examining perverse incentives, institutional capture, social media, and informational warfare. Stay turned on and tuned in.
This is so well done, I've been very frustrated by how hard it is to find data analysis that is honest and competent and helpful. (Have you found any sites that do this? (I got an M.D. in the 80s and ended up staying home with my kids, but I like to keep up through reading a lot.)
Hi GM, I have not found a site that provides that level of statistical granularity. I would be a great service to have an open source platform for this kind of highly relevant statistics.
Here are two resources I do like: (1) Mathew Crawford, friend and colleague (we have collaborated on a few projects), writes a very popular Substack called "Rounding the Earth."
C19early.com also provides quality analysis of trials.
If you have yet to subscribe, please do, as I have more articles in the hopper.
BTW, great article on BPC157 and NO on PubMed for early treatment of Covid. Check it out
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC8575535/#__ffn_sectitle
If i understand your article correctly, you're pointing out that the absolute risk reduction is lower because COVID is rare?
If so, does that analysis change in the face of Omicron, which appears to be very common?
ARR will vary depending on baseline rate. All things being equal, the lower the baseline rate, the lower than ARR. The argument in favor of RRR is it will stay (more) consistent regardless of baseline rate. I find this argument a bit specious as the *best* approach is to present both of them. I will expand upon this in the next article.
Re: Omicron. Depends on a few factors, namely how effective the vaccine is in preventing confirmed cases. In other words, is the RRR consistent?
In addition to all of this, there are numerous confounders worth mentioning. Stay tuned.
So....you're telling me that the government lied to me, and the main-stream media, and the scientists, and big-pharma? Huh? They've never done that before, have they?
I will be diving into this over a series of upcoming posts examining perverse incentives, institutional capture, social media, and informational warfare. Stay turned on and tuned in.
This is so well done, I've been very frustrated by how hard it is to find data analysis that is honest and competent and helpful. (Have you found any sites that do this? (I got an M.D. in the 80s and ended up staying home with my kids, but I like to keep up through reading a lot.)
I mean sites where you can find out ARR info by age, gender, comorbidities etc
Hi GM, I have not found a site that provides that level of statistical granularity. I would be a great service to have an open source platform for this kind of highly relevant statistics.
Here are two resources I do like: (1) Mathew Crawford, friend and colleague (we have collaborated on a few projects), writes a very popular Substack called "Rounding the Earth."
C19early.com also provides quality analysis of trials.
If you have yet to subscribe, please do, as I have more articles in the hopper.